Can we have that uncomfortable talk about Drafting Tua Tagovailoa?

Photo via CNN

In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa finished as QB15 with 239 Total Fantasy Points, averaging 18.4 Points Per Game despite missing 4.5 games with concussions and associated symptoms. When he played full games, his Points Per Game Average jumps up to 19.6 or QB7 territory [excludes Week 4 injury from avg]. If you remember, it was a truly scary sight in Week 4 against the Bengals when he was whipped to the ground, locked up, and carted off the field. I distinctly remember being at a Sports Bar with some friends and two of us had the same "OH SHIT!" reaction. Then again, in Week 16 against the Packers, he was tackled from behind and spun around when the back of his head slammed into the ground and he was shut down for the remainder of the season. It's terrible to see great athletes hindered by injuries, and I think it's important to understand the long term risks. The Abstract from "Cumulative effects associated with recurrent concussion in collegiate football players: the NCAA Concussion Study" provides a great summary, I encourage you to check that out here.

Conclusions: "Our study suggests that players with a history of previous concussions are more likely to have future concussive injuries than those with no history; 1 in 15 players with a concussion may have additional concussions in the same playing season; and previous concussions may be associated with slower recovery of neurological function."

What does this mean for Tua Tagovailoa's Fantasy outlook and 2023 Season? If he stays on the field, I'm confident that he'll be a Top-10 QB, and with the tools around him in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua could easily crack into the Top-5 QB range and be an absolute bargain at his ADP. But that is a big if... the Miami Dolphins gave up 35 sacks in 2022, or 2 per game. That risk of reinjury is going to be there a minimum of 2 times per game. At the time of writing this blog on August 9th, his ECR and ADP are both 91, putting him in the draft range with guys like Dak Prescott, Dalvin Cook, Dallas Goedert, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Also ahead of other notable QBs Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and Aaron Rodgers.

What Would Smacky The Frog Do? I'm passing on Tua to grab a position player like a Dallas Goedert or Dalvin Cook, because my draft strategy is to get a top 6 QB, or wait and double up if I miss out. If you're feeling frisky that day and draft Tua, make sure to circle back to the QB position later in the draft and get a solid backup like a Russell Wilson, or Derek Carr just in case the worst happens. What level of risk are you willing to take? Comment below