There seems to be a general consensus amongst Fantasy Analysts about the Top-6 QBs this year, but I think after the obvious choices, it gets a little spicy with identifying who will be QB1s in Fantasy this year. Here is my list of Top-12 QBs: 1. Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is QB1. Do I actually need to explain why?
The guy set a career high in Passing Yards with 5,250 and threw for 41 Tuddies the year after he loses his best, and one of the NFL's best, wide receivers in Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Comparing this performance to his competition and runners up… Justin Herbert threw for 4,739 Passing Yards in 2022, 2nd most in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes threw for almost 11% more and led the league with his 5,250 Passing Yards. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow each threw for 35 Touchdowns in 2022, tied for 2nd most in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes threw for 17% more and led the league with 41 tuddies. The consensus Tier 1 Top-3 QBs this year are Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, but I would argue Mahomes should be considered in his own Tier. He's finished as the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Points, QB1, in 2 out of his 5 years in the NFL. Be the first person in your Draft to take a QB, and get Mahomes in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds - especially if you are stacking with Travis Kelce.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
This is my guy. My freaking guy!! If you don't know, I'm a huge Eagles fan, so I absolutely write with a bit of bias to my Birds!
But it shouldn't take an Eagles fan to acknowledge the progression and elite execution of Jalen Hurts' quarterback game. If you watched the Super Bowl, there is just simply no denying that Jalen Hurts has arrived. The decision making and accuracy, particularly in the deep ball have really come along to catch up to the rest of his game. He also protected the ball, throwing for only 6 Interceptions in 460 attempts or 1.3% of the time. In 2022 Jalen Hurts was 14th in Passing Touchdowns, throwing for only 22 on 460 attempts, or 4.8% Hurts and Josh Allen both rushed for ~ 750 yards in 2022, but in comparison, Hurts added 13 Touchdowns to Allen's 7.
With the steps Hurts is taking in his game, and his supporting cast in AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert continuing to build that chemistry, I expect another Top-3 Finish from Hurts if he plays the entire season. He would have finished as QB1 in 2022 even after Mahomes' insane year, but he missed 2 games and still ended as QB3! Draft Hurts, and stack him with Devonta Smith.
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
In 2022 Josh Allen threw for 4,283 yards and 35 Touchdowns, adding another 700 yards rushing with 7 rushing touchdowns, landing him at QB2. Surprisingly this is step back from his QB1 finishes in both the 2020 and 2021 Seasons! Over the last 3 years, Allen's stats have remained largely the same, making him one of the safest and highest performing QBs in Fantasy Football. There's no reason to believe this suddenly changes for the better or the worse, as his core group of weapons in Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox are returning. The Bills added new additions in Rookie Tight End Dalton Kincaid and the shakeup at RB with James Cook appearing to take the lead over Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. Maybe this is the year the Bills finally get a respectable rushing attack outside of Josh Allen, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm penciling in another stellar performance for Josh Allen, and he should be a lock to be one of the first 3 QBs off the board this year.
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has dealt with some injuries over the last 2 Seasons, and it seems that casual fans are forgetting exactly what this guy is capable of. He was 1 of 2 Quarterbacks in 2022 to put up two 40+ Point Games, and he did it in only 12 games; the other QB being Justin Fields. When you have a guy on your Fantasy Team capable of those performances, sometimes they just win you the Week outright. The last two full seasons Lamar Jackson played in 2019 and 2020, he put up 1,200 yards and 1,000 yards rushing respectively, and 7 touchdowns both years. And again, the only other Quarterback to put up over 1,000 yards rushing in the last few years - Justin Fields. With this kind of capability on the ground, if Lamar is able to take the next step with his retooled and healthy group of weapons in JK Dobbins, Odell Beckham Jr, Mark Andrews, and electric Rookie WR Zay Flowers, he could be pushing for that QB1 spot. If you draft Mark Andrews, consider the stack with Lamar Jackson.
5. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
After Week 5 Justin Fields averaged nearly 25 Points per Game, ending as QB6 in 2022 after missing 2 games. This average is boosted by 2x 40 point games, which only one other QB had in the 2022 season in Lamar Jackson. I know the obvious concern around Justin Field is his ability to make accurate and timely reads and throws, but his supporting cast really has helped him out, and here's why … Justin Fields was sacked a whopping 55 times in 2022, which was tied for the league worst with Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. The Bears realized they needed to retool here, and the only returning member of the 2022 Offensive Line at the same position was Braxton Jones, a 2022 rookie. The Chicago Bears also used their 10th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to bolster the line with Darnell Wright, and bringing in Nate Davis in Free Agency. They've also added DJ Moore who finally gives Justin Fields an established WR to throw to. Analysts and friends alike were all drooling over Field's preseason stat line against the Titans going 3/3 for 129 yards and 2 Touchdowns, arguing that he finally arrived as a passer. And maybe this is true, but that WR screen that DJ Moore took 62 yards to the house was all him. Regardless, it still nets Fantasy Points. And when the improvements in the Offensive Line, the threat of an established receiver, and simply Justin Fields improving, he could be primed and ready for a Top-3 QB finish in 2023.
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joey B finished as QB4 in 2022, throwing for 4,475 yards and 35 Tuddies, surprisingly enough adding another 5 scores and 250 yards on the ground. That's only 2 less rushing touchdowns than Josh Allen! I'm not going as far to say I expect a "rushing floor" from Joe Burrow each year, but he's added a few scores on the ground in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL that has been a nice bonus for Fantasy Managers. The Cincinnati Bengals gave up 41 sacks in 2022 or 6th most in the NFL, and Joe Burrow although tough, has had to take quite the beating to get the ball to studs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Standout Offensive Lineman Orlando Brown Jr was added at Left Tackle, hopefully adding security to his blindside this year. Keep in mind, Burrow was without top option Ja'Marr Chase for 5 games, and still ended as QB4. I expect Joey B to sling it this year, assuming he comes back Week 1 from that recent calf injury. If you drafted Chase or Higgins in the first 2 rounds, Joe Burrow is a great target to go for that Stack.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
The 2022 Season was almost a throwaway from a Fantasy perspective with Justin Herbert and his weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams - all being plagued by injuries. Somehow the Chargers still managed to win 10 Games and earn 2nd place in the AFC West. Herbert still managed to finish as QB12 throwing for 4,739 Yards and 25 touchdowns, basically adding nothing on the ground with 147 yards rushing and 0 touchdowns. To compare to his 2021 season and his best year, Herbet threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns, adding another 300 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. Herbert is one of the premier passing Quarterbacks in the league, and with new Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore wanting to press the Deep Ball, 2023 looks like a prime bounce back year for Justin Herbert. We can't expect Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to be healthy for the full season, but the Chargers also added Quentin Johnston with the 21st Pick who appears more than capable of handling the deep ball and is a YAC monster. Check out my write up on Johnston here: https://www.smacky-the-frog.com/post/top-5-players-with-league-winning-upside If you're waiting on Quarterback this year, or simply miss out one of the QBs with Rushing upside, Herbert is a fine QB to rollout and carry you to the Fantasy Playoffs.
8. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
In 2022, Cousins finished as QB7 throwing for 4,547 yards and 29 Touchdowns. If you exclude the absolute dud in Week 11, when the Vikings got obliterated by those damn Cowboys in a 40-3 shellacking, Cousins averaged almost 19 Points per Game. Kirk Cousin's Passing Touchdowns regressed a bit in 2022 with 29 compared to 2021 and 2020 averaging 34. I remember a handful of plays where Justin Jefferson was tackled just before crossing the goal line; simply bad luck in some cases. But with the departure of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison stepping up to be the lead back, I think Mattison wont be as effective on the ground, and Cousins could be slinging it even more this year in red zone situations. Kirk had 643 Pass Attempts in 2022, ranking 4th, so clearly the Vikings aren't afraid of letting him loose, despite Cousins' reputation to sometimes underperform in big games and in critical situations. If you miss out on one of the Top QBs this year, don’t panic and fall back on Kirk Cousins who will be a consistent weekly performer for you, and he's available all the way down at ADP 103. 9. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
After the New York Giant's Week 9 Bye, Daniel Jones averaged 20.5 Points per Game, and ended as QB9 in 2022, throwing for 3,205 yards and 15 Touchdowns, adding another 708 rushing yards and 7 rushing Tuddies. When talking about Daniel Jones, the elephant in the room is the lackluster New York Giants receiving corps severely limiting any Passing upside. However, with the addition of Darren Waller coming over from the Las Vegas Raiders, Jones now has a reliable pass catcher outside of RB Saquon Barkley. Still not ideal, but it’s a step forward. Someone amongst WRs Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell or young speedster Jalin Hyatt need to step for Jones to realistically crack into the Top-6 QBs because the over the middle and short yardage throws for Jones aren't going to cut it. With that being said, Daniel Jones had his best year in his 4th season, and with new head coach Brian Daboll I think he'll continue to help Jones develop, putting in pieces and situation for him to succeed in.
Currently being drafted at ADP 105, he's going right next to Kirk Cousins and both are solid options if you choose to wait on QB in your 2023 Fantasy Football Draft.
10. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
T-Law finished as QB8 in 2022, after just his first year under new head coach and Eagles legend Doug Peterson. Let's all pretend 2021 didn't exist for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, as Urban Meyer put that entire organization and culture into a toxic blender. Averaging nearly 600 attempts per year over his first 2 years in the league, there's plenty of opportunity for this emerging group of Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne Jr to explode onto the scene in 2023. Lawrence needs to be more consistent in 2023 however, after posting 3 complete duds in Weeks 4, 8, and 17. The Offensive Line for the Jags is a pretty good unit, only allowing 27 sacks on Lawrence, and they continued to invest here bringing in Anton Harrison with the 27th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and bringing back 5 players who started and played critical snaps in 2022. If Trevor Lawrence continues to develop under Doug Peterson, and Ridley brings that X Factor to the Jags this year, keep an eye on T-Law to make some noise in Fantasy this year. ADP is 55 right now, which is a little high for my blood, so I likely won't have many shares of Trevor Lawrence this year, but if he slides a bit, consider taking a chance on him.
11. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
See my thoughts on Tua in a dedicated Blog I wrote on 8/15 here: https://www.smacky-the-frog.com/post/can-we-have-the-uncomfortable-talk-about-drafting-tua-tagovailoa In summary, I view Tua as High Risk, High Reward at his ADP and personally am avoiding in drafts with my draft strategy.
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno stayed pretty consistent throughout the year, averaging 18.5 Points per Game, putting up only 1 dud game, and landing him surprisingly at QB5 in 2022. He put up 4,282 yards and 30 Touchdowns which shattered any expectations any analyst had for Geno for that year. This was Geno's best year by far, and was the first time he was the season-long starter since his first year in the league in 2013 with the New York Jets. Even with the Seattle Seahawks struggling to protect Geno Smith, giving up a massive 46 sacks or 4th worst in the league, he still found a way to get the ball to his play makers. Ever reliable Tyler Lockett had a fantastic year, and DK Metcalf actually took a back seat in 2022.With the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th Pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seahawks don’t appear to be taking their foot off the gas with letting Geno sling it. There's some hype right now around the Seahawks Offensive Line, having two promising 2nd year tackles, a 4th year guard in Damien Lewis and drafting Anthony Bradford, that given some time to further develop, this could be one of the Seahawk's best units since the days of Marshawn Lynch aka Beastmode. Geno looked poised in the pocket in 2022, and if they can keep him clean, he should have another similar 2023 season, but I wouldn't expect his ceiling to be drastically different than the stat line in 2022. There are far worse Quarterbacks you could draft than Geno Smith with an ADP of 114 right now.
How'd I do?! Where did I get it right, and what hot takes are you not buying this year? Tell me in the comments below, and be sure to signup for Email notifications so you don't miss the next Blog post!
Patrick Mahomes II
Jalen Hurts
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Justin Fields
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Kirk Cousins
Daniel Jones
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Geno Smith
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