WR Rankings - Top 36

It's been a whopping 6 days since I've posted a blog, so the people need a good one. As the 2023 Preseason wrapped up over the weekend, 32 NFL teams will now be making their final roster decisions, bringing the teams down from 90 players to 53. These are the final tweaks that could impact Fantasy Draft Rankings, but for the most part we're locked in for our Draft Wednesday 8/30 @ 7pm I've got a few spicy takes mixed in here, so stay on your toes, and hit me with your comments! Remember, this is for Standard Scoring, not your PPR shenanigans

Tier 1 1. Justin Jefferson 2. Ja'Marr Chase 3. Tyreek Hill 4. Cooper Kupp There shouldn't be any surprises with these 4 studs - anyone of Jefferson, Chase, Hill, and Kupp can be WR1 in 2023. I personally have the 1st Draft Pick in my hometown league, and I'll be taking Justin Jefferson since he's the "safest". Anybody who averages 1,600 yards and 8.3 touchdowns a year over their first 3 years in the NFL is OK by me. All signs are pointing towards his best year yet. Ja'Marr Chase is Joe Burrow's guy, and especially in the Red Zone where he's logged 22 Touchdowns over his first 2 years. He did miss 5 games last year though, so hopefully the duo can stay healthy for the 2023 season.

Tyreek Hill "The Cheetah" simply cooks people. Some touchdown efficiency questions though, as he had 32 more receptions than Ja'Marr Chase, but 2 fewer Touchdowns in 2022.

Cooper Kupp obviously has the injury concern as his con, but whenever he's on the field he's a surefire bet to be the WR1 that week.

Tier 2 5. A.J. Brown

6. Stefon Diggs

7. Davante Adams

8. CeeDee Lamb

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown

Again, pretty much in-line with consensus on these guys. AJ Brown - put up 1,500 yards and 11 Touchdowns in his first year with the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, earning him WR4 in 2022. I expect a similar performance in 2023 and lock him as a the Top-10 WR.

Stefon Diggs finished as WR5 in 2022, and could have pushed for the top WR spot if not for a really down stretch between Weeks 14-17 last year where he averaged a pathetic 3.6 PPG. The Bills offense will have a tad more rushing this year, but I don’t think that'll matter for Diggs who's one of the more consistent receivers in the league. His worst season since 2018 was 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns. That's his absolute floor. Draft Diggs. Davantae Adams is a stud, so any concerns here comes from Jimmy G having to throw him the rock. If you exclude his 2019 season with the Packers (only played 12 games), the last time Adams hasn't put up double-digit touchdowns was 2015. He's addicted to scoring Tuddies, and that's the type of guy you want on your team. CeeDee Lamb put up less than 10 PPG in 35% of his games in 2022. That combined with having only 1 game above 25 PPG makes me extremely nervous to draft CeeDee. I still think with the volume he's going to get this year he's a Top-10 WR, but you better be prepared to eat some inconsistency this year in his performance. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a nice 2nd year, putting up 1,161 yards and 6 touchdowns. It took awhile for St. Brown to demand the Red Zone targets and that picked up over the 2nd half of the season. I don't think St. Brown will explode in 2023, and I'm penciling in a similar performance - 1,200 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. He'll get his.

Tier 3

10. Jaylen Waddle

11. DeVonta Smith

12. Calvin Ridley

Here we go! If Tua plays a full season, I think there is a legitimate chance he supports 2x WR1s again in 2023, just as he did in 2022 when Tyreek finished WR3 and Jaylen Waddle finished WR7.

Devonta Smith or the "Slim Reaper" is an absolute stud, and this is his year with the Birds. For a 6 game stretch to end the 2022 season, he finished with an average of 13.8 PPG, equivalent to Devante Adams's season-long average PPG or the WR2. Calvin Ridley he's back. It may take Ridley a few games to fully click with Trevor Lawrence, but that's a chance I'm willing to take for his upside. He's 2 years removed from a 1,400 yard 9 touchdown year with the Falcons. This guy can do it and in a big way.

Tier 4 13. Garrett Wilson 14. Chris Olave 15. Tee Higgins 16. Amari Cooper

We didn't get to see much preseason action with Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, but that one touchdown pass reminded me of what Rodgers had with Jordy Nelson. I think the Jets will be good, not elite this year and there are a handful of weapons for Rodgers to use which is why I'm not as hot on Wilson as some other folks. Fringe WR1 for me. Chris Olave had nearly an identical Rookie season as Garrett Wilson - 1,000 yards and 4 Touchdowns. He get's a bump this year with new QB Derek Carr, so I expect the touchdown numbers to increase. I am really hot on Michael Thomas this year, so I think he's reemergence could limit Olave's ceiling, so I've got him a few spots lower in my Rankings. There aren't too many teams with a better WR2 on paper than Tee Higgins. Ja'Marr Chase commands an incredible target share and trust from Joe Burrow, and Tee Higgins wont be "breaking out" anytime soon, but he's averaging 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns per year since entering the league with the Bengals in 2020. Locked and Loaded WR2.

Amari Cooper had his best year in 2022 for the Browns posting 1,160 yards and 9 Touchdowns. Despite that he still had 8 games in 2022 scoring fewer than 7 PPG. I generally try to target guys with a stable weekly floor, so I'm fading Cooper slightly as my WR16.

Tier 5 17. DJ Moore 18. Keenan Allen 19. Jerry Jeudy 20. Tyler Lockett

DJ Moore has been a consistent receiver throughout his 5 year career in the NFL, averaging just over 1,000 yards and 4 touchdowns per year. He did that with the Panthers, and we all know that hasn't been an ideal situation for a receiver since the days of Cam Newton. Obviously his preseason highlights are floating around now, and we're seeing just how explosive and dominate with YAC Moore can be with a serviceable Quarterback. I think him and Fields link up a fair amount this year and I'm expecting 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns. Should be another strong WR2 with some WR1 performances along the way. Keenan Allen is a guy we all know, and a guy who performs when he's healthy which always hasn't been the case in his career. He seems back to form and ready for his 10th year in the league. I'm a gambling man, and wouldn't bet on him playing a full season, so proceed with caution. The annual preseason hype for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and generally any Broncos WRs has been annoying and not warranted over the last few years. Jeudy ended the 2022 season like a stud though averaging 12.4 PPG over his last 6 games. It seems Jeudy may miss a few weeks early in the year, so bear that in mind, but if there's ever a year where we should have high expectations, its 2023 with Sean Payton entering the chat. Maybe you can get an injury discount on Draft Day and get a solid WR2 with WR1 upside. Tyler Lockett the pocket Rocket. Over the last 5 seasons he's averaged over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. The guy is a consistent outperformer of his ADP each year and I have no idea why nobody shows him love. Yes, I see him falling down immediately after catching the ball, but entering his 9th year I have no problem seeing him avoid the big hits. Availability and consistency are key.

Tier 6

21. Brandon Aiyuk

22. DK Metcalf

23. Christian Kirk

24. Christian Watson

25. DeAndre Hopkins

26. Terry McLaurin

27. Mike Evans

28. Chris Godwin

29. Mike Williams

30. George Pickens

31. Brandin Cooks

32. Diontae Johnson

Brandon Aiyuk - he's emerged as the top pass catching in San Francisco, and Kyle Shanahan has found some clever ways to get this explosive receiver the ball. Although he was inconsistent and a headache at times from a fantasy owner perspective, he ended as WR15 in 2022.

DK Metcalf seems to be the 1B to Lockett's 1A from a Fantasy performance perspective. DK saw touchdown regression in 2022 to actually to his lowest rate since entering the league with scoring only 6 times, but he still put up 1,000 yards. I'm slightly lower on DK than ECR because I'm uncertain how new WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba will shake up the target shares. He's a plug and play WR2 with WR1 upside. Christian Kirk with Calvin Ridley back in the mix, Kirk will likely not repeat his 2022 career high performance, but he'll still put up WR2 numbers this year. Trevor Lawrence has some weapons now at his disposal and the question is whether he will take the next step in year 2 under Doug Peterson. Christian Watson performed once he was healthy, and had an explosive stretch in 2022 when he averaged 21 PPG over 4 games. The WR1 in Green Bay, we will all watch in 2023 with high hopes Jordan Love can take full advantage of this tall and athletic weapon.

DeAndre Hopkins still has it, but Tannehill under center makes me nervous. I can't see Ryan Tannehill supporting Hopkins as a WR1, but I do think he'll get enough volume where Weekly WR2 performances will be the norm.

Terry McLaurin arguably outperformed by Jahan Dotson in the preseason, and now dealing with a Turf Toe injury, McLaurin was all the hype entering the 2023 season. Somehow, someway, Sam Howell appears to be a capable Quarterback that wasn’t anywhere on my radar. 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns seems to be a fair target for McLaurin in 2023.

Mike Evans - has there been any one more consistent in the NFL throughout their career? Doubtful, and as he eyes breaking the record for most consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, I have all the faith he'll get it done; regardless if Baker is at the helm. If Baker goes down, the Buccaneers only have Kyle Trask on the roster as a backup QB, so that could be the issue here. At his ADP though, I'm going for it and you should to. Chris Godwin - has missed a few games each year with injury, and has seen touchdown regression over his last two seasons only scoring 5 then 3 touchdowns. The Yards and receptions were there with Brady, but for similar reasons to Mike Evans, I have some doubts as to Baker being the answer for a full season and being able to support 2 high caliber WRs. Mike Williams - ugh where do I start with this guy? At 6' 4" 220lbs he's made some ridiculous highlight reel catches, and he has Justin Herbert slinging him the ball. The year-to-year inconsistencies in performance and the injury history make me want to fade Mike Williams again, but man, when the guys on the field, he can put up numbers with guys going 10 spots ahead of him. George Pickens - this is a guy who has really climbed up my rankings during the offseason and preseason here for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's establishing a strong connection with Pickett, who also seems to be taking the next steps in his development. I think Pickens in a better receiver than Johnson, and I think that'll be obvious by the end of the 2023 season. Brandin Cooks I already wrote a dedicated blog about why think Brandin Cooks outperforms his ADP this year. Check it out here https://www.smacky-the-frog.com/post/draft-this-disrespected-1-000-yard-wr-with-94-game-availability Diontae Johnson - really had a brutal 2022 season, but the Steelers had a down year in general. Excluding 2022, Johnson has been pretty consistent averaging 6.6 Touchdowns per year and 921 yards over his first 3 years in the league. I think he'll end up just shy of 1,000 yards and have 4-6 tuddies on the year.

Tier 7 33. Drake London 34. Deebo Samuel 35. Jahan Dotson 36. Michael Thomas

Drake London is a good enough receiver for me, I just cannot have faith in Desmond Ridder. Bijan will be taking targets as well as Pitts and big Mack Hollins (holy shit, did you see how big he got?!) I wouldn't be surprised if Taylor Heinicke takes over at some point in the season for Atlanta.

Deebo Samuel had a stellar 2021 season and crash landed in 2022 with only 600 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. He just seems to not be the favorite guy for Brock Purdy these days, and with CMC in the backfield they really don't need him handling all the touches he once did. Great player though, hopefully I eat my words here and he has a great 2023 season because his highlight reel is sick!

Jahan Dotson - I'd be lying if I said I had him this high before the preseason. He just seems most explosive than McLaurin and commanding a similar target share. He's impressed me here and who knows how bad that turf toe will be for Terry McLaurin…

Michael Thomas - he's my Darkhorse, and if I had any real stones I'd put him as a WR2. He's healthy now, and primed and ready to remind everyone just how good he can be. I think the Saints win the NFC South, and Michael Thomas's reemergence is a headlining story in 2023.

Which takes do you agree with? Where am I completely off my rocker?! Let me know on Twitter or comment below!